- January 21, 2026
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: Technical analysis
We are witnessing a strong repricing in EUR/USD, driven by a “Sell America” trade that is crushing the dollar across the board. The pair is up 1.6% this week alone, breaking out of a bullish flag and confirming a vertical impulsive move. But the question is: with Wave 4 near the 100% extension as support, is it time to buy the dip?
We analyse the shift driven by President Trump’s tariff threats at Davos, which has intensified the selling pressure on the greenback. We overlay this geopolitical risk with a classic Elliott Wave setup on the 4-hour chart, mapping out the path to 1.1800 and potentially 1.1900.
Key topics covered:
“Sell America” intensifies: How Trump’s double-down on the February 1st tariff deadline at Davos triggered a second wave of dollar weakness, sending gold to $4,850 and the euro soaring.
Elliott Wave analysis:
Wave 3 peak: The impulsive leg from Monday’s open was rejected exactly at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (1.1767), signalling a temporary top.
Wave 4 entry: We are now looking for a corrective pullback to the 100% Extension and 50% Retracement near 1.1700—a major psychological support and our “buy zone.”
Wave 5 targets: If 1.1700 holds, the net distance projection targets 1.1784, 1.1807, and potentially 1.1830.