EUR/USD may break below 1.1836 and continue its downtrend.

The EUR/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframe is currently trading within a well-defined short-term bearish structure. Price action has been forming a consistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming sustained downside pressure following the rejection near the 1.1920–1.1930 region. A descending trend line connects recent swing highs and continues to act as dynamic resistance, preventing bullish momentum from developing. Each attempt to rally has been capped beneath this trend line, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment.

The 1.1836 level is technically significant because it marks a recent consolidation base where buyers previously defended the market. A decisive hourly close below this level would signal a breakdown from consolidation and confirm continuation of the broader bearish structure. Such a move would likely trigger increased selling pressure as short-term traders enter momentum positions. The next logical downside objective is located near 1.1776, which corresponds to a prior demand zone and previous reaction lows. This area represents a liquidity pocket where price may seek support, making it a reasonable target for a bearish continuation trade.

Fundamentally, the U.S. dollar continues to show relative strength compared to the euro, supported by resilient macroeconomic data and firm labor market conditions in the United States. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer have helped sustain yield differentials in favor of the dollar. Higher U.S. Treasury yields tend to attract capital inflows, providing structural support for USD and exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD. In contrast, the Eurozone faces comparatively softer growth dynamics, with slower industrial activity and ongoing concerns about economic momentum. If this growth divergence persists, it may continue to favor dollar strength over the euro.

Conclusion, considering the alignment between the prevailing technical downtrend and the supportive fundamental backdrop for USD strength, the overall bias favors downside continuation. Therefore, we can enter a sell position if the price breaks and closes below 1.1836, with a target at 1.1776.