Two forces in the oil industry collide head-on.

Positive news—the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Iran has suspended oil tanker passage through the Strait, citing Israel’s attack on Lebanon as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. This renewed blockade of the Strait, a vital global energy artery, has immediately triggered a significant geopolitical premium.

Negative news – overwhelming inventory pressure. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased for the seventh consecutive week, rising by 3.08 million barrels last week, compared to market expectations of only 700,000 barrels. Inventory levels are already above the five-year average, indicating that the oversupply is not just talk, but a real phenomenon.

OPEC+ is set to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, further accumulating supply-side pressure. The current oil market is characterized by price increases driven by geopolitical news and decreases by fundamental factors.

On the 4-hour chart, the price ran in the rebound channel for a while, but it couldn’t go up after hitting around 98, and the candlestick started to show upper shadows. The 1-hour MACD has just formed a golden cross below the zero line, but the bearish momentum still dominates, and the moving average system is generally suppressing the price. The RSI has just climbed out of the oversold zone and is still in a neutral to weak position.

In short: the overall bullish trend remains unchanged, but the short-term outlook has been damaged and needs time to recover.

Long positions: Wait for prices to return to around 95.00. Short positions: Consider small short positions in the 98.50-99.00 range.

The best current strategy: Observe more and act less, wait for the direction to become clear before making any moves.With alternating bullish and bearish news, entering the market will only result in losses.