- April 22, 2026
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: news
The world’s leading investment banks expect the pound to trend higher against the dollar.
That’s the headline takeaway from Pound Sterling Live’s survey of leading tier-1 investment bank pound-dollar forecasts, conducted during April on behalf of payments firm Horizon Currency.
The data allows us to present the highest, lowest and average forecast of the sample. The mean forecast is particularly interesting as we judge it to be the most accurate available.
We have noted that the first quarter mean forecast for GBP/USD presented in our year-ahead survey was met, which gives us faith in the process.
The document showing exact point forecasts for the next four quarters is available on request from Horizon Currency.
“The USD has weakened, and energy prices have stabilised at a lower but still elevated level,” says an analysis from Danske Bank. “Significant uncertainty remains regarding the outlook and terms of a potential peace agreement between the parties, with the timing of traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz being especially unclear.”
The dollar rallied in the first two weeks of March as analysts responded to the Iran war in a classic risk-off fashion that traditionally supports the dollar.
But gains soon faded and investors began to position for peace by buying stocks and currencies that lost value during the opening days of the conflict.
Weakness has extended into April as hopes for a settlement grow. However, major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD have since settled and pulled back.
One major concern is that the impact of the war – which will be felt via higher energy prices – hasn’t been fully realised.
That suggests risks for investors in the coming months, and it’s not hard to see the dollar recover here and undershoot the consensus.
That’s why we think considering the outlier forecasts for pound-dollar downside are also worth considering by those with upcoming dollar payments.