XAUUSD — Waiting for FVG at 4,560–4,607 Before the Next Leg Down

Structure flipped clearly. We had a ChoCH, then a confirmed bearish BOS. What looked like accumulation between May 12–14 was actually distribution — price coiled inside a descending channel and then dumped hard on May 15. That move was clean, aggressive, and left a massive imbalance above. That gap from 4,560 to 4,607 hasn’t been touched. Smart money left that inefficiency on purpose, and I think price comes back to collect it before continuing lower.

When price taps into that FVG, I’m not just blindly shorting. I want to see a reaction on M15 — a bearish engulfing, a BOS, something that shows sellers are still in control at that level. Once I get that confirmation, the short is toward 4,480. That’s the floor, that’s the target, that’s the trade.

What kills this setup? Simple — if price closes above 4,652 on H1 and holds, I’m out. That’s where the EMA cluster sits and where structure would shift. Above that level, this is a different market. But right now, all four EMAs are stacked above price like a ceiling and every bounce has been sold. Nothing about this chart says buy.