Gold Falls 0.7% Even as Fed Hike Odds Drop to 36%, Keeping the Bull Case Intact

  • August 13, 2026
  • Posted by: EWGFX
  • Category: news
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Cooling Inflation Cuts Fed Hike Odds, While Profit-Taking Tests Gold Support
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,373.29/oz after briefly rising about 1% to a two-month high. December US gold futures fell 0.8% to $4,430.20/oz, confirming broader short-term selling. US CPI slowed to 3.4% year over year from 3.5%, reducing expectations for another Fed hike.

Gold broke below $4,387 support as profit-taking unwound positions built ahead of the inflation report, according to independent analyst Ross Norman. CME FedWatch cut the implied probability of a September hike to 36% from 55% a week earlier, reducing the rate pressure that competes with non-yielding gold.

Broad Metals Selling Signals Positioning Reset, Preserving Gold’s Reserve-Asset Case
Silver fell 1.36% to $64.41/oz, platinum 1.93% to $1,722.65/oz and palladium 2.16% to $1,339.87/oz, extending the selloff across precious metals. The synchronized decline points to a broad positioning unwind rather than weaker physical demand for any single metal.

Venezuela’s dispute over 31 metric tons of gold shows how bullion can retain strategic value when currency purchasing power falls. The Bank of England continues to hold roughly 31 metric tons of Venezuelan gold that Caracas cannot access. Caracas is targeting the roughly $4 billion reserve for earthquake reconstruction as annual inflation reached 575.9%, reinforcing gold’s role as a reserve asset when domestic currency loses purchasing power.

45% of Central Banks Plan More Gold, Supporting Demand Through Short-Term Volatility
Central-bank gold demand operates on a longer horizon than a single inflation print. Central banks bought 244 tonnes net in Q1 2026, while a record 45% plan to increase reserves within 12 months, up from 43% last year. WGC Global Head of Central Banks Shaokai Fan said the survey shows more reserve managers view gold as an “active, strategic allocation.” WGC and the Artisanal Gold Council also signed a five-year agreement to improve gold traceability, expanding the infrastructure needed for compliant institutional sourcing.