- March 17, 2026
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: news
Gold did something unusual on Monday: it dropped toward $4,900, its lowest level in a month, during an active Middle East conflict in which the Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked and oil is trading near $84 per barrel.
By Tuesday March 17, it has bounced back above the $5,000 psychological level and is trading at $5,016 per ounce, but the Monday move exposed a fragility in the gold rally that the precious metals community cannot ignore. The same forces that drove gold from $2,600 to over $5,400 in twelve months – dollar weakness, dovish Fed expectations, central bank buying – are now running in reverse, at least temporarily.
In this article, I will break down why gold and silver are falling, examine technical analysis of both XAU/USD and XAG/USD charts, and compile the most significant price predictions for 2026, including Robert Kiyosaki’s extraordinary new forecast. Based on my over 15 years of experience as an analyst and retail investor, here is what I am watching.
Why Gold Is Going Down? The Dollar, Rates, and the Oil Paradox
Gold initially spiked from $5,296 to $5,423 when Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz – the instinctive safe-haven reaction. It then reversed hard, losing more than 6% from that intraday high in a matter of sessions.
The Dollar Index has recovered sharply, climbing above 100.2 – its highest level since May 2025 – making gold significantly more expensive for buyers using non-dollar currencies.
As Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com, explains: “A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby exerting downward pressure on the precious metal.”
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The dollar recovery is itself a consequence of oil: the Hormuz closure has pushed Brent toward $84, reigniting inflation fears that reduce the probability of Fed rate cuts in June from 57% just weeks ago to below 49% today.
The 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.2-4.3% creates the second layer of pressure. As Tran puts it, “when bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, which tends to reduce the appeal of the non-yielding asset.” Gold rallied from $2,600 to $5,400 largely on the expectation that yields would fall as the Fed cut rates. That thesis is now in question, and gold is repricing accordingly.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair in early February added a structural dimension to the selling. Markets read Warsh as more hawkish on inflation than his predecessor, and the CME subsequently raised margin requirements on metal futures – triggering the same forced liquidation cascade that hit silver in January.