Can Gold Rally If Treasury Yields Stay Elevated?

Gold Settles Flat but the Real Story Was the Volatility
Spot Gold settled last week at $4493.68, basically flat but that wasn’t the real story in my opinion. Early last week, gold prices broke hard to $4099.12, a four-month low, before rebounding the rest of the week. That volatility tells us exactly the kind of market we’re in right now, forced selling, then short-covering. The price action has been ugly at times, not very stable and not very clean. It also suggests that the market has shifted away from the safe-haven narrative, to an interest rates and liquidation story.

Central Bank Selling Is the Key Shift Nobody Wants to Talk About
I think that the key shift is the central banks. There was chatter last week of selling and increasing speculation of potential rate hikes. Apparently, Turkey sold a large amount of gold to support its currency as the war drove Iranians into the country. There is also speculation that Russia has been a seller for cash flow. This matters because the entire 2025 rally was anchored on the premise that central bank buying was the most supportive factor. Geopolitical risk is still elevated, which is keeping the “safe-haven” argument alive, but it may not be strong enough if a wave of central banks decide to sell.