EUR/USD Price Outlook – Trade Setup (EUR/USD)

Technical Structure

EURUSD

EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1600, retracing from last week’s two-week high at 1.1656.
The short-term structure shows the pair trading inside a support zone at 1.1579–1.1586 and beneath a resistance zone at 1.1621–1.1628.
The recent break of the rising trendline suggests fading bullish momentum, yet buyers remain active above 1.1580, keeping the pair in a corrective phase rather than a full reversal.
A rebound toward the 1.1621–1.1628 resistance zone is likely if 1.1580 continues to hold. However, failure to defend this support would expose downside risk toward 1.1570 and potentially 1.1545.

Trade Setup
Reversal Scenario (Aggressive)**
If price rejects the resistance zone (1.1621–1.1628):
Entry (Sell): 1.1621 – 1.1628
Stop Loss: 1.1631
Take Profit: 1.1580
Bias remains mixed but leaning bearish unless the pair sustains above 1.1630.

Macro Background
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1600, with the U.S. Dollar struggling to extend its recovery.
FXStreet notes: “EUR/USD holds retracement near 1.1600 as markets turn cautious ahead of the U.S. NFP release.” 【FXStreet】
Key macro drivers:
🇺🇸 USD Side
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades slightly lower near 99.45, reflecting lack of follow-through buying.
Investors are positioning cautiously ahead of Thursday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could reset expectations for Fed policy.
Rate-cut expectations continue to fall:
→ December cut probability drops to 43% (from 62.4% a week ago), according to CME FedWatch.
This reduction in dovish pricing limits upside for EUR/USD.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Side
A majority of ECB officials maintain that interest rates should remain unchanged, citing balanced risks to inflation and growth.
This steady ECB stance offers mild support to the euro, but lacks strong bullish momentum.
Overall, EUR/USD remains supported on dips, but upside is capped by soft Eurozone fundamentals and diminishing Fed rate-cut expectations.

Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 1.1621 – 1.1628
Support: 1.1586 – 1.1579
Trendline Break Level: 1.1605
Psychological Level: 1.1600

Trade Summary
EUR/USD is consolidating above the 1.1580 support zone, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound toward 1.1621–1.1628. However, unless price breaks and holds above the resistance area, the broader bias favours a downside continuation back toward 1.1586 or even 1.1579.

Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.