- March 24, 2026
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: Technical analysis
Gold prices continue to decline during the Asian session, with XAU/USD attempting to consolidate below $4350 per ounce. Over the past three weeks, gold has fallen 9.6%, marking the worst performance since September 2011.
Dollar Strength Drives Gold Lower
The previous rally in gold was fueled by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, sentiment has shifted:
- Investors rotating into risk assets
- US dollar strengthening
- Rising inflation expectations
This has triggered a short-term bearish trend in gold.
Federal Reserve Outlook Pressures Gold
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50–3.75%, but revised projections shifted sentiment:
- 7 of 19 policymakers expect no rate cuts
- Only one rate cut expected overall
- Inflation forecast raised to 2.7%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also stated that progress in lowering inflation has stalled, adding further pressure to gold.
Geopolitical Risks Fail to Support Gold
Despite ongoing Middle East tensions:
- US issued ultimatum to Iran
- Iran threatened retaliation
- Israel launched strikes
- Reports of potential US ground operation
Markets reacted unexpectedly:
- Gold declined
- USD strengthened
- Risk appetite improved
Macro Data and Positioning
Recent US data:
- Jobless claims: 205K (strong labor market)
- PPI: +0.7% MoM (above expectations)
CFTC positioning:
- Net speculative positions: 159.9K (down from 163.1K)
- Long positions remain dominant
Technical Analysis
Indicators confirm bearish pressure:
- Bollinger Bands: downward trend
- MACD: strong sell signal
- Stochastic: slight rebound possible
➡️ Short-term bias remains bearish
Key Levels
Resistance
- 4350.00
- 4400.00
- 4450.00
- 4500.00
Support
- 4300.00
- 4245.06
- 4179.79
- 4120.00
Trading Scenarios
Bearish Scenario
Sell below 4300.00
- Entry: 4299.95
- Target: 4179.79
- Stop-loss: 4350.00
- Timeframe: 1–2 days
Breakdown confirms continuation lower.
Bullish Scenario
Buy above 4350.00
- Entry: 4350.05
- Target: 4450.00
- Stop-loss: 4300.00
Recovery signals short-term rebound.
Outlook
Gold remains under strong dollar pressure, with macro and Fed expectations dominating sentiment. Unless price reclaims $4350, the downtrend is likely to continue.