Gold Has Retreated From Record Highs. What’s Next?

While the price of gold has come down this year, structural factors continue to support it, and could push it back above USD 5,000 by year-end.

Gold prices have dropped more than 20% from January’s all-time high, but remain 25% higher than a year ago. This sets the stage for 2026 to be one of the most volatile years on record for the asset just as its historical relationships with interest rates and risk are turned on their heads.

Gold has sharply declined ever since the Iran war triggered energy supply bottlenecks that have battered the world economy, a backdrop that normally supports the prices of safe-haven assets.

“The decline reflects investor positioning adjustments, as they sold gold to provide margin for other asset classes,” says Peter Kinsella, head of investment services UK at Union Bancaire Privée.