- October 13, 2025
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: Technical analysis
The gold rally shows no signs of slowing as buyers continue to step in on every dip amid the absence of bearish catalysts. At this stage, the only notable risk for a larger pullback appears to be the upcoming US CPI release on October 24.
Fundamental Overview
Gold ended Friday on a strong note, supported by risk-off sentiment after Trump’s threat to sharply increase tariffs on China. Over the weekend, however, softer remarks from Trump and other US officials helped improve risk appetite.
Despite this renewed optimism in broader markets, gold started the week higher and pushed to a new all-time high this morning. The move has largely been driven by momentum and a lack of negative drivers, allowing buyers to maintain control.
From a broader perspective, gold’s uptrend remains intact as real yields are expected to continue falling in line with the Fed’s dovish stance. In the short term, though, a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations could trigger a correction — but that would likely require strong US labor data or a hotter-than-expected CPI print next week.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, gold posted solid gains on Friday following Trump’s tariff threat against China. The move has been so steep and parabolic that the daily view now offers limited insight, making it necessary to zoom into lower timeframes for more detail.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4-Hour Timeframe
On the 4-hour chart, price rebounded from around the $3,939 level and extended the rally to a new record high this morning. From a risk management standpoint, buyers will find a more favorable risk-to-reward setup near the ascending trendline to position for continued upside. Meanwhile, sellers will be watching for a break below that area, which could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the $3,819 zone.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Timeframe
On the 1-hour chart, gold has already reached the upper boundary of its average daily range. While this doesn’t rule out further gains, it often precedes a brief consolidation or pullback.
If the price falls back below the previous all-time high at $4,059, sellers could step in, targeting a move toward the trendline. Conversely, buyers are expected to continue defending this area, maintaining a defined risk just below $4,059 while aiming for fresh highs.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week’s calendar is expected to remain light on key data due to the ongoing US government shutdown. Reports such as Retail Sales and Jobless Claims will not be released. However, several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak tomorrow.
Given the lack of major data, a significant shift in sentiment is unlikely. For now, the only major event on the radar is the US CPI release on Friday, October 24, which could set the tone for gold’s next move.