- December 31, 2025
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: Technical analysis
🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
On the H1 timeframe, XAUUSD remains in a short-term bearish trend, characterized by a clear Lower High – Lower Low structure.
Price action suggests Smart Money continues to sell into rallies (premium zones) and only seeks real demand at deep discount levels after sell-side liquidity is swept.
➡ Intraday Bias:
SELL on pullbacks into premium zones
BUY only at deep discount after clear SSL sweeps
➡ Primary Scenario: Liquidity sweep → M5/M15 CHoCH → displacement toward the trade direction
📉 MARKET STRUCTURE & LIQUIDITY (H1)
H1 structure: bearish continuation with weak pullbacks
Frequent false rallies before downside continuation
Liquidity Map
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL):
Above 4367–4369
Above 4328–4330
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL):
Below 4255
➡ All entries are positioned directly at key liquidity pools, respecting intraday Smart Money logic.
🔑 KEY ZONES (DIRECTLY LINKED TO ENTRIES)
🔴 4369–4367 | SELL SCALP – Upper Premium Rejection
Why this zone is ideal for SELL scalps:
Highest pullback level within the H1 range
Located directly at strong BSL, ideal for stop-hunts
Confluence of pullback FVG and short-term distribution
➡ Best suited for fast SELL reactions after M5/M15 rejection.
🔴 4330–4328 | SELL GOLD – H1 Premium Distribution
Why this is the primary SELL zone:
Clear premium relative to the bearish H1 structure
Prior reaction area, likely to form another Lower High
Weak bullish momentum on pullbacks
➡ Preferred zone for main SELL positions with strong R:R.
💎 4257–4255 | BUY GOLD – Deep Discount Reaction
This is the only BUY zone of the day.
Key reasons:
Deep discount within the H1 structure
Positioned just above major intraday SSL
Strong confluence of H1 demand and FVG
➡ BUY only after downside liquidity is taken and structure shifts bullish.
⚙️ TRADE SETUPS (CLEAR & EXECUTABLE)
✔ SELL SCALP – UPPER SELL
Entry: 4369–4367
Stop Loss: 4375
Take Profit: 4345 → 4330
Logic: BSL sweep → price rejection → fast bearish displacement
✔ SELL GOLD – MAIN SELL
Entry: 4330–4328
Stop Loss: 4336
Take Profit: 4305 → 4285
Logic: H1 distribution → Lower High formation → downside continuation
✔ BUY GOLD – MAIN BUY
Entry: 4257–4255
Stop Loss: 4250
Take Profit: 4285 → 4320 → 4355
Logic: SSL sweep → demand activation → bullish displacement
🧠 INTRADAY NOTES
❌ Do not BUY before price reaches deep discount
❌ Do not chase SELLs after strong drops
✅ Always wait for M5/M15 CHoCH confirmation
Year-end sessions may create sharp fake breaks
🏁 SUMMARY
4369–4367: SELL SCALP (upper premium)
4330–4328: SELL GOLD (primary premium)
4257–4255: BUY GOLD (deep discount – only BUY)
➡ Let liquidity be taken first — enter with confirmation — maximize R:R.