- January 16, 2026
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: Technical analysis
Gold has started 2026 with a significant upward momentum, consolidating its role as a safe-haven asset amid growing geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. In the first hours of trading, the price of gold (GOLD) reached $4,643 per ounce, reinforcing the metal’s defensive appeal and generating renewed interest in companies involved in its extraction.
Gold Fundamentals
- Geopolitics and Safe-Haven Demand
Geopolitical risk remains elevated across several regions, driving investment in precious metals as a hedge against volatility and global trade fragmentation. This environment has benefited the mining sector, with companies posting strong stock performance and consolidating their positions amid sustained price levels. In Europe, the basic resources index ranks among the top performers in the Stoxx 600, with gains exceeding 8% in January, extending the positive trend from 2025, when the index closed the year with an increase of nearly 28%. Companies such as Glencore, Aurubis, Boliden, and KGHM are leading this rally, reflecting the sector’s strength and investor interest in real assets. - Megamergers and Sector Concentration
The market is also closely monitoring a potential megamerger between Rio Tinto and Glencore, which would create the largest mining company in the world, with a combined market value exceeding $200 billion. Deals of this magnitude aim for operational efficiency and increased investment capacity in a context of rising costs, particularly energy, one of the biggest expenses in mining. - Commodities Supercycle
Beyond gold, signs are emerging of a potential commodities supercycle, driven by rising energy demand and the need for materials for the development of artificial intelligence. In this context, diversification across precious metals, industrial metals, and energy appears as an attractive alternative to equities and fixed-income assets amid an environment of uncertain interest rates. - January: A Historically Favorable Month
The start of the year is traditionally the most favorable period for gold and silver. Historical data show that January records the largest average gains of the year, a pattern also reflected in mining companies, which reinforces investor interest during this period. - Leading Miners Setting the Pace
Among the most relevant companies in the sector are Newmont, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Zijin Mining, Wheaton Precious Metals, Franco-Nevada, Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, Polyus, and Kinross Gold. These companies not only mirror gold price movements but also act as catalysts for market dynamics, offering investors strategic exposure to precious metals and global stock market trends.
Technical Analysis – Ticker: GOLD
Gold has begun the year with strong upward momentum, remaining above the 50-period moving average, indicating a positive technical bias. In recent sessions, the price approached the historical highs of $4,643.02 recorded on Wednesday but failed to break above them.
The RSI currently stands at 67.48%, in overbought territory, while the MACD shows a positive histogram with averages above, though with slight signs of bullish exhaustion. The current control point is around $4,200, forming a highly polarized “bell-shaped” price structure; this area acts as support for the ongoing upward impulse, so a significant short-term correction is not expected.
In the immediate term, the price is likely to lateralize near the upper zone of the bell before establishing a new price level ahead of any correction. The nearest support is at $4,381.16, with intermediate levels at $4,550 and $4,500, which need to be tested before considering corrective moves. The probability that gold will retest and potentially surpass the historical highs in the coming week remains relatively high.