GOLD – Waiting for a breakout to break through!!

Overall, the H4 timeframe structure still leans towards a medium-term downtrend with the formation of a Lower High – Lower Low pattern. However, in the short term, the H1 – M30 timeframe is forming a trendline channel, indicating the market is in an accumulation phase.

  • The multi-timeframe EMA (H4 – H2 – H1) still shows a bearish structure as the EMA34 remains below the EMA89. Currently, the momentum is unclear as the price continuously fluctuates between the EMA34 and EMA89 lines.
  • The (4573 – 4585) zone is currently a crucial resistance area; a breakout of this zone would trigger a return to higher levels. The (4416 – 4422) zone is currently a crucial support area; a break below this would disrupt the current uptrend and potentially lead to a return to a medium-term downtrend.

VIEW:

  1. BUY SCENARIO:
  • Confirmation candle breaks through the resistance zone (4533 – 4537).
  • Confirmation of a breakout from the descending trendline and simultaneously a breakout from the Lower High structure.

=> A short-term bullish structure will be confirmed.

=> When the price completely breaks through the resistance zone (4573 – 4585), the upward momentum will expand more strongly.

  1. SELL SCENARIO:
  • Price touches the descending trendline and tests the resistance zone (4533 – 4537) but is rejected.
  • A reversal signal appears (pinbar/engulfing candle).

=> The price is likely to reverse and continue consolidating within the trendline.

=> If the price breaks through the support zone (4468 – 4473), prioritize short-term SELL signals towards the support levels below.

=> When the price completely breaks through the support zone (4416 – 4422) and breaks the uptrend line and simultaneously breaks the Lower Low structure, the bearish structure will expand.

SELL LIMIT GOLD: 4537 – 4539
STOPLOSS: 4544
TP1: 4534
TP2: 4507

BUY LIMIT GOLD: 4468 – 4470
STOPLOSS: 4464
TP1: 4473
TP2: 4490