Oil giants brace for a bruising earnings season — with shareholder returns at risk

European energy giants face some tough choices this earnings season, with shareholder payouts seen at risk as they look to cut costs amid lower crude prices.

Western oil and gas majors have long sought to keep investors happy through share buyback programs and dividends.

But a multitude of industry headwinds, along with expectations for a particularly weak earnings season, have ratcheted up the pressure, and the commitment to allocate cash to shareholders is vulnerable.

Britain’s Shell
and France’s TotalEnergies
are both expected to report their lowest fourth-quarter profit in nearly five years when they publish earnings this month, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus of analysts.

European energy companies find themselves in a “very difficult” market environment, with industry players likely to report lower quarterly profits and lower free cash flow, according to Atul Arya, vice president and chief energy strategist at S&P Global Energy.