Oil takes centre stage as markets rebound globally

Markets will be looking closely for any additional comments from the Trump administration confirming or rejecting the narrative that the war in the Middle East is getting close to an end.

From the US, the NFIB’s small business optimism index is due for release for February. Business sentiment has recovered gradually over winter.

After surprisingly high Norwegian inflation in January, the February figures released today will be extremely important in terms of the interest rate outlook going forward. We suspect that part of the price increase in January was one-off effects that will not be reversed in February, while some of it is probably an expression of underlying price pressure in parts of the economy. We expect that core inflation rose 0.7% m/m in February, which is roughly in line with the historical pattern. Due to base effects, this will pull the annual growth rate down to 3.0%, because both food prices and non-rent service prices will rise somewhat less than last year.

In Denmark, February inflation data is released today. This inflation print includes about 70% of the yearly rent increases. Considering the 21% weight of rents in the consumer basket, this is key for the inflation level throughout the coming year. It will also be interesting to see whether the declining trend in food inflation continues. We expect inflation at 0.9%, up from 0.8% in January on particularly higher electricity prices.

In Sweden, focus will be on the January activity data released today. While the GDP indicator tends to be volatile, it can offer an early signal for actual growth trends. The consumption indicator, typically more stable, will provide valuable insight into the situation for households.