Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD is likely to stay subdued if UK CPI meets expectations.

The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.

The UK headline Consumer Price Index is forecast to have eased to a 3.5% year-over-year (YoY) in November from the 3.6% seen in October. Meanwhile, Monthly inflation is expected to be flat at 0% after rising 0.4% in October.

How could the UK CPI affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD is likely to stay subdued if UK CPI meets expectations. However, any upside surprise could cap losses by tempering dovish sentiment ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision on Thursday. The BoE is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest since 2022, as rising unemployment and economic stagnation ease inflation pressures. Traders will also observe UK Retail Sales and PPI Core Output data.

The GBP/USD pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) advances after mixed US labor market data for November did little to reinforce expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 74.4% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank’s next meeting in January, up from nearly 70% a week ago.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3390 at the time of writing. Daily chart analysis points to a sustained bullish bias, with the pair holding within an ascending channel and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. The pair may explore the resistance region around the 13-week high of 1.3536. On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3662, followed by the psychological level of 1.3300, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 1.3295.