Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades above $72.00; bears retain control below 100-day SMA

Silver attracts buyers for the third straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction.
The technical setup backs the case for the resumption of the recent downtrend.
A sustained move above the 100-day SMA is needed to negate the bearish bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) retreats from a four-day high, around mid-$73.00s touched earlier this Tuesday, though it sticks to positive bias for the third straight day. The white metal trades just above the $72.00 mark during the first half of the European session, up 3.0% for the day.

Looking at the broader technical picture, the near-term bias remains bearish while the XAG/USD holds well below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $75. The 100-day SMA continues to rise but no longer provides support, instead capping rebounds as spot Silver extends its slide toward the longer-term uptrend context defined by the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $63.

Meanwhile, momentum conditions reinforce downside pressure, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) remaining below its signal line and in negative territory as the histogram stays weak. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.83 sits below the 50 line, reflecting persistent selling interest rather than oversold stress, favoring the XAG/USD bears.

Initial support aligns near $69.00, guarding the recent low at $67.85, with a clear break of this band exposing the next bearish target around $63.00, where the rising 200-day EMA offers more substantial medium-term support. On the upside, immediate resistance emerges at the $75.00 area, where the 100-day SMA converges with a recent breakdown zone, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the prevailing bearish tone and open the way toward $80.00 as the next barrier.

Nevertheless, the path of least resistance stays to the downside, and rallies are vulnerable to renewed selling pressure as long as the XAG/USD trades below $75.00.