Silver prices surged and then retreated amid uncertainties in Middle East negotiations and expectations of interest rate pressures.

Silver prices remained range-bound during the Asian session, currently trading near $74. Overall, the market lacks clear direction, with prices oscillating within a consolidation range, but the short-term structure remains weak.

From a fundamental perspective, uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East persists. Despite plans by the United States and Iran to initiate a new round of negotiations for a long-term ceasefire, significant differences remain. Iran has pointed out that certain terms of the agreement have already been breached, particularly regarding the conflict in Lebanon, further undermining market confidence in the prospects for a ceasefire. This uncertainty has kept market sentiment cautious, providing some support for silver as a safe-haven asset, but failing to generate substantial upward momentum.

Meanwhile, changes in the energy market are indirectly affecting silver. The recent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to surge, raising global inflation expectations and prompting markets to anticipate continued tightening policies by major central banks. Although the recent ceasefire news has somewhat eased the rise in oil prices, overall inflation levels remain elevated, maintaining a tight policy environment.

From a monetary policy perspective, expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates continue to weigh on silver. According to market pricing, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is approximately 76.4%, implying that real interest rates may remain relatively high, thereby reducing the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like silver. This is one of the key reasons why silver prices have remained under pressure recently.

In terms of market sentiment, investors are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach. On one hand, geopolitical tensions still pose recurring risks; on the other hand, the policy trajectory remains unclear, leaving capital without a definitive direction. In this context, silver prices are predominantly exhibiting range-bound fluctuations.

Technically, daily charts show that silver has entered a consolidation phase following a pullback from higher levels, with signs of weakening trends. Prices have consistently traded below short-term moving averages, indicating bearish dominance. The area near $74.89 serves as a key resistance level, corresponding to the 20-day moving average. If this level cannot be effectively breached, downward pressure will likely persist in the short term. Further resistance is observed around $81.13, representing the previous high.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI is positioned in a neutral-to-weak region (approximately 46), signaling insufficient bullish momentum. Additionally, the MACD continues to exhibit weakness, suggesting limited upside potential. On the 4-hour chart, prices are oscillating within a lower range, with short-term moving averages aligned in a bearish formation. Unless the price breaks above the $75 zone, any rebound is likely to be a technical correction.

On the downside, the $70 level serves as a critical support, holding significant psychological importance. A break below this level could trigger further declines. Additional support is seen around $66.70, corresponding to the previous low.