Silver retreats from a key level as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report

Silver pulled all the way back into a key swing level around the 92.00 handle as some renewed tariff uncertainty and the risk of a military escalation between US and Iran has kept the market supported. What’s next?

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Silver pulled all the way back into a key swing level around the 92.00 handle as some renewed tariff uncertainty and the risk of a military escalation between US and Iran has kept the market supported.

Nonetheless, the bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned given no changes to the big picture.

In fact, Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law, and the tariff deals remain in place. The new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so at the margin it could be a positive.

The market might remain supported in the short-term amid some uncertainty, but I don’t see material changes to justify a rally back to all-time highs, at the moment. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could take silver prices to new highs or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a negative effect on the market.

Fed’s Waller mentioned that he would change his dovish stance in case the strong January’s jobs data is repeated in February, so next week’s NFP report is going to be a key risk event for silver.