The Euro Attempts to Approach 2025 Highs

EUR/USD started the week posting gains of more than 0.4% in favor of the euro, marking a renewed bullish bias toward the close of 2025. For now, buying pressure has managed to hold, as central bank dynamics in the United States and Europe have supported a weaker outlook for the U.S. dollar, allowing the euro to continue regaining ground in the short term. As long as this environment remains in place, buying pressure is likely to become more relevant for EUR/USD over the coming trading sessions.

We are now in the final weeks of 2025, and the main central bank decisions have already been announced, beginning to shape expectations for 2026. First, the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates in neutral territory in its final decision of the year and indicated that this stance could extend into 2026 under a policy of sustained neutral rates. In fact, in the days following the decision, the ECB Watch probability table shows that for the February 3, 2026 meeting there is an 83.9% probability that the current 2.00% deposit rate will remain unchanged, reinforcing the ECB’s neutral outlook as it continues to assess employment and inflation data.