The USDCAD pair has slipped lower, breaking beneath its key hourly moving averages

Following the release of stronger-than-expected Canadian CPI data, the CAD gained momentum, driving the pair downward.

From a technical standpoint, USDCAD has now fallen below both the 100-hour (1.4037) and 200-hour (1.40278) moving averages — levels that have now turned into near-term resistance zones.

As long as sellers can keep the price trading below these averages, downside momentum is likely to persist. A return above would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook.

Last week, the pair extended its mid-September rally, briefly pushing above the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 range at 1.40212, and the swing zone between 1.4010 and 1.4026. However, the latest decline has pulled prices back under those averages — though not yet beneath the lower boundary of the swing area at 1.4010. Sellers will need to drive the pair decisively below that level to regain firmer control.

As discussed in the accompanying video, bears are attempting to reassert dominance after several weeks of steady upside.
The key question now: can they maintain momentum below the recently broken support zone?