Today’s Key Market Events

  • October 21, 2025
  • Posted by: EWGFX
  • Category: news
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The main focus today will be on Canada’s CPI report, as the rest of the calendar remains relatively quiet.

European Session

There’s little on the agenda this morning, apart from a few ECB speakers who are unlikely to deliver any new insights beyond their usual messaging.

U.S. Session

The spotlight shifts to Canada’s inflation data — the only significant economic release of the day.

  • CPI (YoY): Expected at 2.3%, up from 1.9% previously.
  • CPI (MoM): Forecast 0.0%, compared to -0.1% prior.
  • Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY): Expected to remain steady at 3.0%, where it’s hovered since February 2025.

Last week, BoC Governor Macklem hinted at a potential rate cut in October, reinforcing a dovish outlook. Following his remarks, markets priced in an 86% chance of a cut (up from 68%). By the end of 2026, markets see rates falling to around 2.00%, below the BoC’s estimated neutral range of 2.25%–3.25%.

However, given the recently strong Canadian employment data, any upside surprise in today’s CPI could spark a hawkish repricing and challenge expectations for aggressive easing.

Central Bank Speakers

  • 07:00 GMT / 03:00 ET – ECB President Lagarde (neutral, voter)
  • 09:30 GMT / 05:30 ET – ECB’s Escriva (neutral, voter)
  • 13:00 GMT / 09:00 ET – Fed’s Waller (dovish, voter)
  • 19:30 GMT / 15:30 ET – Fed’s Waller (dovish, voter)

In summary, all eyes are on the Canadian CPI, which could shape short-term expectations for the Bank of Canada’s next policy move. The rest of the day’s events are expected to have limited market impact.