XAU/USD: Buy at OB 4.18x–4.17x; Sell on reaction.

  • December 10, 2025
  • Posted by: EWGFX
  • Category: Technical analysis
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Market Structure (H1)

Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows:

  • Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term.
  • However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept.
  • Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below.

→ The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move.

Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch

Resistance / Sell Zone

  • 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times.
  • 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS.
  • Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards.

Support / Buy Zone

  • 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone.
  • OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated.
  • If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting.

Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow

Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170

Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up.

BUY Conditions:

  • Price touches 4,184–4,170
  • Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH
  • Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear

Targets:

  • TP1: 4,190
  • TP2: 4,200
  • TP3: 4,215
  • TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell)

Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure.

Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x

If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up:

SELL Conditions:

  • Retest 4,243–4,244
  • Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH
  • Must not close H1 above 4,250

Targets:

  • TP1: 4,235
  • TP2: 4,225
  • TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170

Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout.

Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261

Only activate when:

  • Price bounces strongly from OB Buy
  • Clear breakout of 4,243 zone
  • Structure forms HL → HH

At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction.

Risk Management Notes

  • Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243.
  • SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs.
  • OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.