- February 3, 2026
- Posted by: EWGFX
- Category: Technical analysis
Following the historic rejection from $5,600 and the subsequent crash to $4,400, Gold (XAU/USD) is now entering a high-stakes consolidation phase. We have successfully broken out of the local descending channel, but the market is now facing a Major Pivot Zone at $4,845.
Our bias remains Neutral until a clear structural break occurs on the 30m/1H timeframe. We are tracking two primary scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (The Recovery)
The Trigger: A clean 30-minute candle close above the Decision Point at $4,845.
The Logic: This would confirm that the post-crash “Value Hunters” have successfully absorbed the overhead supply, potentially turning previous resistance into new support.
Target: $5,000 (Psychological level) followed by the $5,140 retracement zone.
Stop Loss: Below the recent swing low at $4,780.
Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection (The Bull Trap)
The Trigger: Failure to sustain momentum above $4,845, followed by a break back below $4,780.
The Logic: If the price rejects the DP, it suggests the recent rally was merely a “dead cat bounce” or short-covering. A break of $4,780 confirms a Lower High (LH) and Lower Low (LL) structure.
Target: A retest of the $4,550 value area or the recent $4,400 lows.
Stop Loss: Above the $4,850 rejection wick
Technical Checklist:
RSI: Currently hovering near 50 (Neutral). We want to see a divergence or a push above 60 to confirm Scenario 1.
Volume: Watch for a volume spike on the breakout of the $4,780–$4,845 range.
Key Macro Levels: 50-day EMA at $4,485 remains the long-term “line in the sand” for bulls.
Bottom Line:
Don’t anticipate the move—react to it. The area between $4,780 and $4,845 is a “No Trade Zone” for disciplined traders. Wait for the market to tip its hand.